https://craigstanley.work/ Craig Stanley, Microsoft AI consultant in the North East of England. I map how work gets done, find the decisions that cost money, and put small, visible AI behind them on the Microsoft stack. en-gb Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMT https://craigstanley.work/blog/notes/why-decisions-not-adoption/https://craigstanley.work/blog/notes/why-decisions-not-adoption/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTBlogAdoption figures say how many people use an AI tool. They don't say whether work got better. Measuring decisions does. https://craigstanley.work/work/start-here/map-the-work-then-the-decisions/https://craigstanley.work/work/start-here/map-the-work-then-the-decisions/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTWorkWhy mapping what people actually do should come before choosing AI tools, and a five-step way to do it with public frameworks. https://craigstanley.work/work/onet/reading-an-o-net-occupation/https://craigstanley.work/work/onet/reading-an-o-net-occupation/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTWorkA guide to the parts of an O*NET occupation profile that matter most for mapping work and decisions. https://craigstanley.work/work/onet/work-context-freedom-to-make-decisions-consequence-of-error/https://craigstanley.work/work/onet/work-context-freedom-to-make-decisions-consequence-of-error/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTWorkTwo O*NET work context ratings that give a quick, comparable read on how much judgement a role involves and what mistakes cost. https://craigstanley.work/work/esco/esco-occupations-and-skills-in-practice/https://craigstanley.work/work/esco/esco-occupations-and-skills-in-practice/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTWorkWhat ESCO is, how its occupations and skills fit together, and how to use it to describe UK and European roles. https://craigstanley.work/work/esco/crosswalking-esco-to-o-net/https://craigstanley.work/work/esco/crosswalking-esco-to-o-net/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTWorkHow to move between ESCO occupations and O*NET profiles so you get ESCO's skills detail and O*NET's task detail for the same role. https://craigstanley.work/work/tasks-to-decisions/the-decision-inventory-template/https://craigstanley.work/work/tasks-to-decisions/the-decision-inventory-template/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTWorkA one-sheet template for listing the decisions a team makes, with frequency, stakes and reversibility, so you can see where to start. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/start-here/five-questions-before-any-decision/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/start-here/five-questions-before-any-decision/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsWhat, why, when, how and who. Five questions that take two minutes and stop most bad work decisions before they start. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/start-here/save-money-make-money-look-after-people-the-three-goals/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/start-here/save-money-make-money-look-after-people-the-three-goals/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsEvery work decision worth improving serves at least one of three goals. Naming the goal tells you what to measure. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-theory/expected-value-on-one-page/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-theory/expected-value-on-one-page/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsA plain explanation of expected value with a worked example from the service desk, and the two places it misleads. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-theory/when-is-more-information-worth-paying-for/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-theory/when-is-more-information-worth-paying-for/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsThe value of information, explained with a work example. More data is only worth buying if it could change what you do. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-theory/setting-a-threshold-you-can-defend/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-theory/setting-a-threshold-you-can-defend/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsHow to pick the confidence score at which a model acts on its own, asks a person, or stops, using the cost of each kind of mistake. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-theory/calibration-are-your-80-calls-right-80-of-the-time/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-theory/calibration-are-your-80-calls-right-80-of-the-time/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsHow to check whether a person's or a model's confidence matches reality, with a simple method any team can run. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/game-theory/why-everyone-pads-their-estimates/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/game-theory/why-everyone-pads-their-estimates/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsPadding estimates is a sensible response to how organisations treat estimates. Game theory explains why, and what changes the behaviour. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/bias/outcome-bias-judging-the-decision-by-the-luck/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/bias/outcome-bias-judging-the-decision-by-the-luck/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsGood decisions sometimes turn out badly and bad ones sometimes work. Outcome bias is judging the decision by the result alone. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/bias/anchoring-in-estimates/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/bias/anchoring-in-estimates/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsThe first number mentioned pulls every later estimate towards it. How anchoring distorts project, budget and AI-benefit estimates, and what to do about it. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-models/what-a-decision-model-is-and-isn-t/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-models/what-a-decision-model-is-and-isn-t/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsA decision model scores a fixed set of options and says how confident it is. It's smaller, cheaper and easier to audit than a general chatbot. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-models/act-ask-a-person-or-stop/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-models/act-ask-a-person-or-stop/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsThree routes for every case a decision model scores, and how to decide which cases take which route. https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-records/the-decision-record-schema/https://craigstanley.work/decisions/decision-records/the-decision-record-schema/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTDecisionsA short, fixed format for writing down a decision at the moment it's made, so it can be reviewed fairly later. https://craigstanley.work/risk/start-here/most-ai-risk-registers-list-the-model-not-the-decision/https://craigstanley.work/risk/start-here/most-ai-risk-registers-list-the-model-not-the-decision/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTRiskWhy AI risk registers full of generic model risks don't help, and how to rebuild them around the decisions models feed. https://craigstanley.work/risk/risk-map/data-decision-people-supplier-cost-five-risk-types/https://craigstanley.work/risk/risk-map/data-decision-people-supplier-cost-five-risk-types/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTRiskA simple way to group AI risks at work into five types, with examples and a first control for each. https://craigstanley.work/cost/start-here/the-three-costs-of-ai-at-work/https://craigstanley.work/cost/start-here/the-three-costs-of-ai-at-work/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTCostLicences, consumption and people's time. Most AI budgets track the first, some track the second, and almost none track the third. https://craigstanley.work/cost/underspend-pooling/set-the-budget-weekly-move-the-underspend-on-friday/https://craigstanley.work/cost/underspend-pooling/set-the-budget-weekly-move-the-underspend-on-friday/Sat, 10 Oct 2026 09:00:00 GMTCostA simple routine for AI consumption budgets. Set allowances weekly and move unused allowance to people who hit their limits.