Craig Stanley
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What a decision model is, and isn't

A decision model scores a fixed set of options and says how confident it is. It's smaller, cheaper and easier to audit than a general chatbot.

10 October 2026 · 2 min read · Craig Stanley
In short, explained

A decision model is a helper that only answers one kind of question, like "yes or no?" It's small, quick and cheap, and it tells you how sure it is.

A chatbot can write anything. A decision model just picks between set options, such as approve, query or reject, and gives a confidence score. That makes it cheaper to run and much easier to check.

A decision model maps structured inputs to a fixed label set with a calibrated score. Its narrow output makes it cheap, testable against historical decisions and auditable. Pair it with explicit thresholds and a human route for low-confidence or high-stakes cases.

What it is

A decision model takes the facts of a case and returns one of a fixed set of answers, with a score. "Approve, 0.93." "Escalate, 0.71." The options are agreed in advance. The model can't invent a new one.

It can be a classic machine learning classifier, a small language model told to answer only from a fixed list, or a set of rules. What matters is the shape: fixed options in, one option plus confidence out.

What it isn't

  • It isn't a chatbot. It doesn't write explanations or hold a conversation. If you want a summary of the reasoning, that's a separate step.
  • It isn't the decision-maker. It recommends. The threshold and the people around it decide what happens with the recommendation.
  • It isn't permanent. Because the inputs and outputs are fixed, you can swap one model for another and compare them on the same cases.

Why small is good

A narrow model is cheaper per decision, often by a large margin, than asking a general-purpose model to reason from scratch. It's faster. And it's testable: you can run it over last year's decisions and see how often it agrees with what people did, and where it doesn't.

Where it fits

Decision models suit decisions that are frequent, have clear options, and have a record of past outcomes to learn from. Expense approvals, ticket routing, eligibility checks and renewal flags are typical. They suit one-off strategic decisions badly. Those need people, information and argument.

Read next

A question to take awayWhich repeated decision would you trust a cheap model to score first, with a person checking the close calls?

About me

Craig Stanley

Microsoft AI consultant and technical architect, based in Whitley Bay. Over the last few years I've delivered Microsoft 365 Copilot, Copilot Studio agents, Azure AI Foundry work and governance for UK public sector and financial services organisations.

What interests me is the decision underneath the tool: what it costs, what it risks, and whether a small, transparent model can make it better. I write the methods up here and on Substack so anyone can use them.

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