DecisionsLive
Start here: five questions
What, why, when, how and who, before any decision.
/decisions/start-here/Decision models
Small models that score fixed options: Microsoft-Decision-1, Jev and Copilot Studio patterns.
Live2 written · 2 coming
In this collection
Decisions · Decision models
What a decision model is, and isn't
A decision model scores a fixed set of options and says how confident it is. It's smaller, cheaper and easier to audit than a general chatbot.
ReadDecisions · Decision modelsAct, ask a person, or stop
Three routes for every case a decision model scores, and how to decide which cases take which route.
ReadComing
- Microsoft-Decision-1 in Foundry coming
- Jev typed judgements coming
More in Decisions
DecisionsLive
Decision theory at work
Expected value, value of information, thresholds and calibration without the maths anxiety.
- Expected value on one page
- When is more information worth paying for?
- Setting a threshold you can defend
- Calibration: are your 80% calls right 80% of the time?
/decisions/decision-theory/DecisionsLive
Game theory at work
Budgets, bids, negotiations and other choices where people react to each other.
- The budget contest coming
- Supplier bids as a repeated game coming
- Why everyone pads their estimates
/decisions/game-theory/DecisionsLive
Bias field guide
Anchoring, loss aversion, outcome bias and how to spot them in meetings.
/decisions/bias/DecisionsLive
Decision records
Write down the options, the information and your confidence at the moment you decide.
- The decision record schema
- A 30-second capture in Teams coming
/decisions/decision-records/DecisionsPlanned
Method library
Every method on the site, free to reuse, with a worked example.
- The Decision Diagnostic, in full coming
/decisions/method-library/