DecisionsLive
Start here: five questions
What, why, when, how and who, before any decision.
/decisions/start-here/Decision theory at work
Expected value, value of information, thresholds and calibration without the maths anxiety.
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Decisions · Decision theory at work
Expected value on one page
A plain explanation of expected value with a worked example from the service desk, and the two places it misleads.
ReadDecisions · Decision theory at workWhen is more information worth paying for?
The value of information, explained with a work example. More data is only worth buying if it could change what you do.
ReadDecisions · Decision theory at workSetting a threshold you can defend
How to pick the confidence score at which a model acts on its own, asks a person, or stops, using the cost of each kind of mistake.
ReadDecisions · Decision theory at workCalibration: are your 80% calls right 80% of the time?
How to check whether a person's or a model's confidence matches reality, with a simple method any team can run.
ReadMore in Decisions
DecisionsLive
Game theory at work
Budgets, bids, negotiations and other choices where people react to each other.
- The budget contest coming
- Supplier bids as a repeated game coming
- Why everyone pads their estimates
/decisions/game-theory/DecisionsLive
Bias field guide
Anchoring, loss aversion, outcome bias and how to spot them in meetings.
/decisions/bias/DecisionsLive
Decision models
Small models that score fixed options: Microsoft-Decision-1, Jev and Copilot Studio patterns.
- What a decision model is, and isn't
- Microsoft-Decision-1 in Foundry coming
- Jev typed judgements coming
- Act, ask a person, or stop
/decisions/decision-models/DecisionsLive
Decision records
Write down the options, the information and your confidence at the moment you decide.
- The decision record schema
- A 30-second capture in Teams coming
/decisions/decision-records/DecisionsPlanned
Method library
Every method on the site, free to reuse, with a worked example.
- The Decision Diagnostic, in full coming
/decisions/method-library/