DecisionsLive
Start here: five questions
What, why, when, how and who, before any decision.
/decisions/start-here/Bias field guide
Anchoring, loss aversion, outcome bias and how to spot them in meetings.
Live2 written · 0 coming
In this collection
Decisions · Bias field guide
Outcome bias: judging the decision by the luck
Good decisions sometimes turn out badly and bad ones sometimes work. Outcome bias is judging the decision by the result alone.
ReadDecisions · Bias field guideAnchoring in estimates
The first number mentioned pulls every later estimate towards it. How anchoring distorts project, budget and AI-benefit estimates, and what to do about it.
ReadMore in Decisions
DecisionsLive
Decision theory at work
Expected value, value of information, thresholds and calibration without the maths anxiety.
- Expected value on one page
- When is more information worth paying for?
- Setting a threshold you can defend
- Calibration: are your 80% calls right 80% of the time?
/decisions/decision-theory/DecisionsLive
Game theory at work
Budgets, bids, negotiations and other choices where people react to each other.
- The budget contest coming
- Supplier bids as a repeated game coming
- Why everyone pads their estimates
/decisions/game-theory/DecisionsLive
Decision models
Small models that score fixed options: Microsoft-Decision-1, Jev and Copilot Studio patterns.
- What a decision model is, and isn't
- Microsoft-Decision-1 in Foundry coming
- Jev typed judgements coming
- Act, ask a person, or stop
/decisions/decision-models/DecisionsLive
Decision records
Write down the options, the information and your confidence at the moment you decide.
- The decision record schema
- A 30-second capture in Teams coming
/decisions/decision-records/DecisionsPlanned
Method library
Every method on the site, free to reuse, with a worked example.
- The Decision Diagnostic, in full coming
/decisions/method-library/