Everything on the site

Main

• Home
• About me
• Is Microsoft 365 Copilot worth it?

For machines and quick readers

• Plain text view
• llms.txt (summary for language models)
• llms-full.txt (all text)
• sitemap.xml
• feed.xml (RSS)

Blog

What's Craig thinking about this week?

• Notes Live
  • Microsoft-Decision-1: a first look (coming)
  • Home, Code and Autopilot in plain English (coming)
  • Why decisions, not adoption
• Field reports Drafting
  • A 74,000-user licence model, without the spreadsheet war (coming)
• Horizon scan Planned
  • November 2026 (coming)
• Decision of the week Planned
  • Approve the extra Copilot licence? (coming)

Work

What do we actually do all day?

• Start here Live
  • Map the work, then the decisions
• The O*NET lens Live
  • Reading an O*NET occupation
  • Work context: freedom to make decisions, consequence of error
  • Detailed work activities as a common language (coming)
• The ESCO lens Live
  • ESCO occupations and skills in practice
  • Crosswalking ESCO to O*NET
  • Using ESCO for UK roles (coming)
• Tasks to decisions Live
  • The decision inventory template
  • Frequency, stakes, reversibility: a scoring guide (coming)
• Role cards Planned
  • Case manager (coming)
  • Service desk analyst (coming)
  • Finance business partner (coming)
  • Planner (coming)
• Work data you already hold Planned
  • What your approval logs already know (coming)

Decisions

How do we decide better, cheaply and in the open?

• Start here: five questions Live
  • Five questions before any decision
  • Save money, make money, look after people: the three goals
• Decision theory at work Live
  • Expected value on one page
  • When is more information worth paying for?
  • Setting a threshold you can defend
  • Calibration: are your 80% calls right 80% of the time?
• Game theory at work Live
  • The budget contest (coming)
  • Supplier bids as a repeated game (coming)
  • Why everyone pads their estimates
• Bias field guide Live
  • Outcome bias: judging the decision by the luck
  • Anchoring in estimates
• Decision models Live
  • What a decision model is, and isn't
  • Microsoft-Decision-1 in Foundry (coming)
  • Jev typed judgements (coming)
  • Act, ask a person, or stop
• Decision records Live
  • The decision record schema
  • A 30-second capture in Teams (coming)
• Method library Planned
  • The Decision Diagnostic, in full (coming)

Capabilities

What can Microsoft's tools do today?

• Start here: decision models Live
  • Jev and Microsoft-Decision-1 compared (coming)
  • Where a decision model sits in a Copilot agent (coming)
• Home, Code and Autopilot Drafting
  • The philosophy: Copilot as the OS for work (coming)
  • What changes for your licences (coming)
• Copilot Chat Planned
• Microsoft 365 Copilot Planned
• Notebooks Planned
• Pages Planned
• Agent Builder Planned
• Copilot in SharePoint Planned
• Copilot Studio Planned
• Cowork Planned
• Foundry Planned

Risk

What could go wrong and what do we do about it?

• Start here Live
  • Most AI risk registers list the model, not the decision
• Risk map Live
  • Data, decision, people, supplier, cost: five risk types
• Prioritise Planned
• Mitigate and track Planned
• Nudges Planned
  • Nudge patterns with Power Automate, Teams and Autopilot (coming)
• Governance stack Planned

Cost

What does it cost and how do we keep it honest?

• Start here Live
  • The three costs of AI at work
• Budgets Planned
• Forecasts Planned
• Weekly review Planned
• Underspend pooling Live
  • Set the budget weekly, move the underspend on Friday
• Licence or pay-as-you-go Planned

Roadmap

What's next, for readers and for Craig?

• The plan Live
  • The plan as a decision model (coming)
• Quarterly notes Planned
• Horizon scanning Planned
• What I'm building Drafting
  • Decision-model starter for Foundry (coming)
  • Threshold calculator (coming)
• Now Live