DecisionsLive
Start here: five questions
What, why, when, how and who, before any decision.
/decisions/start-hereDecisions
How do we decide better, cheaply and in the open?
The differentiator · start hereIn short, explained
A decision is picking one thing out of a few. I help people pick well. A small computer helper says "I think this one" and shows why. When the choice is big or tricky, a person decides.
Lots of work decisions repeat: approve or reject, escalate or close, buy now or wait. Decision theory gives you simple tools for these, like weighing what you'd gain against how likely it is. A small, cheap AI model can score the routine ones while people keep the close calls, and the method is written down so anyone can check it or copy it.
Decision theory, game theory and a few well-tested habits, applied to everyday work decisions. Put a small, cheap, observable AI model behind the routine choices, keep people on the ones that matter, and publish the method so anyone can reuse it. Start here if you want to save money, make money and give colleagues firmer ground to stand on.
The idea in one paragraph
Organisations make the same small decisions thousands of times a year. Approve the expense or query it. Close the ticket or escalate it. Renew the licence or let it lapse. Each one is cheap on its own and expensive in total. A small model can score the routine cases quickly and cheaply. People stay on the close calls and the cases with high stakes. Every step is written down, so anyone can check the method, argue with it or copy it.
What you need to know
You don't need a maths degree. You need five ideas:
- Expected value. Weigh each outcome by how likely it is.
- Value of information. More data is only worth buying if it could change your choice.
- Thresholds. Decide in advance at what score you act, ask a person, or stop.
- Calibration. Check that "80% sure" turns out right about 80% of the time.
- Records. Write down what you knew when you decided, so you can judge the decision and not the luck.
Each one has its own page below, with a worked example.
Why "in the open"
A decision method that only one person understands can't be trusted, improved or handed over. Publishing the method, the threshold and the record means the people affected by a decision can see how it was made. It also makes the model easy to swap out when a better one comes along.
Where to start
Begin with Five questions before any decision. If you want the theory first, read Expected value on one page.
7 collections · 12 articles
Collections
DecisionsLive
Decision theory at work
Expected value, value of information, thresholds and calibration without the maths anxiety.
- Expected value on one page
- When is more information worth paying for?
- Setting a threshold you can defend
- Calibration: are your 80% calls right 80% of the time?
/decisions/decision-theoryDecisionsLive
Game theory at work
Budgets, bids, negotiations and other choices where people react to each other.
- The budget contest coming
- Supplier bids as a repeated game coming
- Why everyone pads their estimates
/decisions/game-theoryDecisionsLive
Bias field guide
Anchoring, loss aversion, outcome bias and how to spot them in meetings.
/decisions/biasDecisionsLive
Decision models
Small models that score fixed options: Microsoft-Decision-1, Jev and Copilot Studio patterns.
- What a decision model is, and isn't
- Microsoft-Decision-1 in Foundry coming
- Jev typed judgements coming
- Act, ask a person, or stop
/decisions/decision-modelsDecisionsLive
Decision records
Write down the options, the information and your confidence at the moment you decide.
- The decision record schema
- A 30-second capture in Teams coming
/decisions/decision-recordsDecisionsPlanned
Method library
Every method on the site, free to reuse, with a worked example.
- The Decision Diagnostic, in full coming
/decisions/method-libraryAll Decisions articles
Decisions · Start here: five questions
Five questions before any decision
What, why, when, how and who. Five questions that take two minutes and stop most bad work decisions before they start.
ReadDecisions · Start here: five questionsSave money, make money, look after people: the three goals
Every work decision worth improving serves at least one of three goals. Naming the goal tells you what to measure.
ReadDecisions · Decision theory at workExpected value on one page
A plain explanation of expected value with a worked example from the service desk, and the two places it misleads.
ReadDecisions · Decision theory at workWhen is more information worth paying for?
The value of information, explained with a work example. More data is only worth buying if it could change what you do.
ReadDecisions · Decision theory at workSetting a threshold you can defend
How to pick the confidence score at which a model acts on its own, asks a person, or stops, using the cost of each kind of mistake.
ReadDecisions · Decision theory at workCalibration: are your 80% calls right 80% of the time?
How to check whether a person's or a model's confidence matches reality, with a simple method any team can run.
ReadDecisions · Game theory at workWhy everyone pads their estimates
Padding estimates is a sensible response to how organisations treat estimates. Game theory explains why, and what changes the behaviour.
ReadDecisions · Bias field guideOutcome bias: judging the decision by the luck
Good decisions sometimes turn out badly and bad ones sometimes work. Outcome bias is judging the decision by the result alone.
ReadDecisions · Bias field guideAnchoring in estimates
The first number mentioned pulls every later estimate towards it. How anchoring distorts project, budget and AI-benefit estimates, and what to do about it.
ReadDecisions · Decision modelsWhat a decision model is, and isn't
A decision model scores a fixed set of options and says how confident it is. It's smaller, cheaper and easier to audit than a general chatbot.
ReadDecisions · Decision modelsAct, ask a person, or stop
Three routes for every case a decision model scores, and how to decide which cases take which route.
ReadDecisions · Decision recordsThe decision record schema
A short, fixed format for writing down a decision at the moment it's made, so it can be reviewed fairly later.
ReadA question to take awayWhich repeated decision would you trust a cheap model to score first, with a person checking the close calls?